A newly developed online Covid-19 calculator has identified several Scottish local authorities being at high risk of becoming another 'coronavirus hotspot'.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

Glasgow, which was given new local restrictions last week following a rise in cases, is deemed to be the most likely in the country to become a hotspot between now and September 12, sitting at 92%, according to the tool.

Glasgow Times: The map reveals potential coronavirus hotspotsThe map reveals potential coronavirus hotspots

According to the study, there is a 100% probability that the R rate in the city will be greater than 1 at this point.

Following Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire is the second most likely to become a coronavirus hotspot, at 83%, followed by Renfrewshire at 54%.

However, by mid-to-late September, this increases to a 99% probability in Glasgow, 96% in West Dunbartonshire and 81% in Renfrewshire.

According to the study, other areas with potential to become a hotspot over the following week include:

  • East Renfrewshire – 42%
  • South Lanarkshire – 32%
  • South Ayrshire – 31%
  • East Dunbartonshire – 26%
  • Stirling – 22%
  • Perth and Kinross – 22%
  • Scottish Borders – 13%
  • North Lanarkshire – 10%

Some local authorities, including Fife, Argyll and Bute, North Ayrshire, Inverclyde and East Lothian, have either a 5% chance or lower.

Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said: "COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.”

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

You can view the tool here for more information.

It comes as Scotland recorded 208 new coronavirus cases yesterday, the highest daily increase in positive tests for more than 17 weeks.

The last time more people tested positive for Covid-19 was May 8, when there were 225 new cases of infection.

The increase, up from Saturday’s figure of 141 people, takes the weekly total of confirmed infections to 1,079 – the most over a seven-day period since May 6.

No new deaths have been registered, according to the Scottish Government.

The 208 positive cases account for 2.3% of the 18,418 tests carried out.

Commenting on the rising numbers of confirmed cases, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted: “Today’s numbers show a continued increase, including in % positive.

“While this reflects the substantial opening up of the economy, it reminds us of the need to deploy strong counter measures.

“We have two main tools at our disposal.

“One of these tools is Test and Protect – it is working well and so far reaching well over 90% of positive cases and close contacts.

“Within (the) next few days we will launch a major enhancement – the Protect Scotland app – which will allow us to reach a wider range of contacts.

“Our other main tool – indeed our first line of defence – is ourselves. As we are all out and about more, we must take greater care on face coverings, hygiene, distance.

“Please take this opportunity to think how you could tighten up on the #FACTS rules.

“So far the rise in cases is not matched by a rise in hospital/ICU admissions/deaths.

“That’s good news but we mustn’t be complacent about it. It could be a time lag – some countries, e.g. France, that have had cases rising for longer are seeing these indicators rise now too.

“All in all, this is a moment to take note and act in a way that prevents spread.

“Even if you think risk of Covid to yourself is low, don’t risk infecting others more vulnerable.

“Complying with #FACTS protects you, your family/community and the NHS. It will also save lives.”