IT would be remiss of me not to mention recent developments in the police investigation into SNP finances as I start this week’s column.

The nature of the process means that I am heavily constrained in what I can say but, just as I have to others in recent days, I want to stress to Glasgow Times readers my certainty that I have done nothing wrong, and to say thank you to the many people who have sent me kind messages.

In this type of situation, that is not something I would ever have taken for granted, but I have deeply appreciated it.

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The headlines in Scotland about the ongoing investigation are entirely understandable and justified. But amidst them – and across the UK, the headlines about Boris Johnson’s lying to Parliament over Covid lockdown parties – there are some important issues that perhaps get a bit lost. These are likely to become extremely serious for people across the country in the months ahead.

Obviously, there is the ongoing UK public inquiry into the handling of Covid. I will give initial evidence to it myself over the next couple of weeks. It is part of a process which, together with the parallel Scottish Inquiry, will be vital in ensuring that the right lessons are learned from Covid.

As the head of the Scottish Government during the pandemic, I know how hard everyone worked every day to make the best decisions possible. But I also know we were dealing with a situation that was unprecedented. And we had imperfect knowledge, especially in the early stages. We have a duty to be candid about any mistakes made, and about the things we wish we could have done differently if we had known then what we know now.

The main issue I want to talk about this week, though, is the economy. We all know that Covid had a big impact on the economy. But that doesn’t explain the depth of the economic trouble that people across the UK, much more than in other countries, are feeling the impacts of just now.

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Inflation in the UK is higher – and more stubbornly so – than in many similar economies. That is causing real hardship to people across the country as the costs of everyday life, from shopping to energy, remain much more expensive than in recent years.

The direct impact of inflation is difficult enough, but it gives rise to a double whammy. The efforts to get inflation down mean that interest rates, in other words the cost of borrowing money, go up. The Bank of England will make its latest pronouncement on interest rates tomorrow. It remains to be seen exactly what it does, but the strong expectation is that rates will rise.

Obviously, it is important to ask why the UK is suffering much greater economic pain than other countries.

The ill-fated and short-lived premiership of Liz Truss, and the disastrous ‘mini budget’ that she presided over, was a factor. She plunged an already fragile economy into deep turmoil.

But Brexit – the supply chain disruption and labour shortages caused by it – is a hugely significant factor too. There has been far too little scrutiny of just what a catastrophic error Brexit has been and the disastrous consequences that ordinary people are paying the price of.

But while the causes are important – without understanding these, the solutions will be harder to find – it is the impact I want to focus on today.

Higher interest rates will compound the cost-of-living crisis. They may also push the UK economy into recession.

But it is what they mean for many mortgage payers in the months ahead that is truly alarming.

Mortgage lenders, anticipating the likelihood of high interest rates over a sustained period, are already pushing rates up and withdrawing some products from the market.

It is anticipated that those whose fixed rate deals are about to end will face hikes in mortgage payments of £2900 a year on average. It is important to stress that this is an average figure – some will be higher, some lower. But it is profoundly worrying. And for many individuals and families in that position, it will be impossible to cope with.

This is a genuine economic catastrophe, with terrible real-life consequences for many, hurtling towards us and the UK Government seems woefully underprepared.

There is an urgent need for it to address and resolve the underlying factors causing these problems. But in the meantime, there is a moral imperative for it to put in place financial assistance for those who will otherwise face hikes in mortgage repayments that they simply cannot afford.

I know that the Scottish Government will do all it possibly can to shield people from the impact. But frankly this is a problem way beyond the powers and resources of a devolved government. It needs the financial resources of the Treasury. On behalf of my constituents, I appeal to the UK Government to get its head out of the sand and act now to put help in place, before this tsunami of misery and hardship reaches us.