Jump in consumer confidence as shoppers prepare to spend on Black Friday

Growth from Knowledge’s (GfK) long-running consumer confidence index rose by three points this month, although it remains firmly in negative territory at minus 18.

The improvement was driven by a jump in intentions to make major purchases – an indicator of confidence in buying big-ticket items – by five points to minus 16 in the run-up to Black Friday next week and eight points higher than this time last year.

Confidence in personal finances for the year ahead rose one point to minus one – two points higher than this time last year, while expectations for the general economic situation are up two points but remain at minus 26.

Neil Bellamy, GfK consumer insights director, said: “There was evidence of nervousness in recent months as consumers contemplated the potentially worrying impact of the UK Budget at home and even the implications of the US presidential election.

“But we have moved past those events now.

“But while 2025 is just around the corner and the New Year often brings optimism, it’s too early to expect significant further improvements in the consumer mood.

“As recent data shows, inflation has yet to be tamed, people are still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures, and it will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of ‘change’.”

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure markets at KPMG, said: “Consumer confidence continues to be variable but ability to spend depends on household circumstance.

“Inflation, interest rates having not yet sufficiently fallen and a toughening labour market are all weighing on the minds of many people.

“Early indications are positive on the impact the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period could have but how this month proceeds is the first test of consumer spending appetite following the Budget.

“Retailers will be hoping for a release of pent-up spending demand, including on Christmas gifts, as we head into the golden quarter for the sector.”