Major poll puts Ireland’s lead parties near neck-and-neck

It shows that support for the Fianna Fail party is at 21% ahead of polling day, only slightly ahead of their coalition partners Fine Gael and the largest opposition party Sinn Fein, who were neck-and-neck at 20%.

The Red C-Business Post poll showed support for Fianna Fail unchanged, while Fine Gael had a slide of two percentage points and Sinn Fein gained two.

The near dead-locked poll results came on Wednesday as fears over future economic threats took centre stage in the final stretch of the campaign.

Taoiseach Simon Harris said he is taking a “project truth” approach to calling out Sinn Fein’s spending pledges as election results on the other side of the Atlantic put Ireland’s economic model into sharp relief.

Donald Trump’s presidential election victory in the US has brought heightened concern around what his proposals for corporation tax and tariffs could mean for Ireland.

Mr Harris, leader of Fine Gael, has argued Ireland and other EU countries need to prepare for the possibility of trade shocks as he criticised the scale of Sinn Fein’s spending pledges as well as their saving plans.

He said: “I think that is irresponsible, I think it is dangerous and I think it is reckless.”

He accused Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald of not being able to say what her party was prepared to do in the event of an economic crash, adding that Fine Gael would borrow and stop putting money towards a rainy-day fund.

Asked if the party was engaging in “project fear” to dissuade voters against Sinn Fein, Mr Harris said: “I call it ‘project truth’. It’s telling people what’s being discussed right across European capitals.”

Ms McDonald told an RTE interview on Wednesday morning that a Sinn Fein government would also be prepared to start borrowing in the event of an economic downturn.

Both Mr Harris and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, who were partners in the last coalition government in Ireland, have made clear they will not countenance Sinn Fein as a potential partner in the next administration in Dublin.

One day after the only three-way debate featuring the leaders of the main parties, Mr Martin accused Sinn Fein of being “dishonest” about how they will fund their manifesto plans.

Speaking in Dublin on Wednesday, he said he is anxious to get clarity on the issue.

“I think Sinn Fein have been very dishonest, frankly, in terms of the funds, because if you go through their figures, and this is a matter of fact, not opinion, they’re predicting a surplus of a billion in 2026, a billion in 2027.

“Even in 2025, they’re talking about a mini budget, which would mean reducing the surplus that we’re anticipating in 2025.

“There’s a legislative obligation now on any new government to put 0.8% of GDP to one side, and into the funds. There’s no way you can do that with a surplus of a billion in 2026 or 2027, and we would argue they would not have enough funds next year either to put into the funds.”

He added: “It means they have no room to manoeuvre if things go wrong, if there’s headwinds come externally, or there are shocks internationally, Sinn Fein is not allowing any headroom at all in terms of room to respond or to move it.”

Ms McDonald accused the other two parties of conspiring to keep Sinn Fein out of government and prevent change in Ireland.

She said the two men were now “indistinguishable” from each other as she claimed they were suffering “acute amnesia” in regard to their records in government.

On a visit to Naas fire station in Co Kildare, she said: “To listen to them, you’d imagine they had just arrived on the scene and that they were going to come up with all of these solutions.

“They have had ample chances, ample opportunity, to make things better, and they have failed, and in between the two of them I make the case that now we ask for our chance, with our plans, with our team, to demonstrate how change can happen, how your community, your family, yourself, can be supported when the government is actually on your side.”

Mr Martin’s and Mr Harris’ coalition partner Roderic O’Gorman, the leader of the Greens, issued a warning to the public over a future government without his party.

On Wednesday, he said it is looking likely that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will be returned to government – but cautioned they may not want the Greens to continue “fighting hard” on policies.

He told reporters: “My sense is certainly the mood music from Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is that they’d like an easier life in the next government – and my concern is they use these small populist parties and right-wing independents.”

Mr O’Gorman argued that the Greens could continue to provide stability to government at a time when economic shocks may be around the corner.

As the Green leader suggested that relying on independents would be unstable, Mr Martin has also argued that “too much fragmentation would lead to incoherence in government”.

Reflecting on Tuesday night’s debate, the Fianna Fail leader said the race remained “too close to call” while Mr Harris said it is “all to play for”.

The leaders of Ireland’s three main political parties clashed on housing, healthcare and financial management in the last televised debate before Friday’s General Election.

The tetchy debate, which was marked by several interruptions, saw the parties set out their stalls in a broadcast that commentators said did little to move the dial before polling day.

After the 2020 general election delivered an inconclusive result, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties forged from opposing sides of Ireland’s Civil War of the 1920s, agreed to set aside almost a century of animosity and share power – with the Greens as a junior partner.

From 2016 to 2020, Fianna Fail had supported Fine Gael in power through a confidence-and-supply arrangement from the Opposition benches in the Dail parliament.

Sinn Fein won the popular vote in 2020 but a failure to run enough candidates meant it did not secure sufficient seats in the Dail to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.