majority of Scots are against Nicola Sturgeon's October 2023 referendum date, a new poll has found

Asked whether there should be a referendum held in October 2023, 53 per cent of Scots said there should not be a poll, with only 40 per cent backing the timeline.

The First Minister wants to hold a vote on Scotland’s constitutional future on October 19 next year, provided the Supreme Court backs the legality of the referendum.

The poll, carried out for The Scotsman, interviewed 1,029 Scottish adults aged 16 or over online between June 23 and 28.

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Support for independence is at 44 per cent, with those stating they would vote No in a future independence referendum at 46 per cent, both down one per cent from the last poll in May.

A further 10 per cent of voters are undecided, up three percentage points.

But with undecideds removed, popular support for independence remains unchanged, with 49 per cent stating they would vote Yes and 51 per cent stating they would vote No.

Scots are also not wholly convinced the case for independence in stronger in 2022 than it was in 2014, according to the survey.

In total, 40 per cent state the case is stronger, while 32 per cent argue it is weaker and nine per cent stated they did not know.

On the timing of a potential vote, opinion is split down constitutional lines, but is more uniform among No voters.

In total, 80 per cent of Yes voters want a referendum on the First Minister’s timeline, with just four per cent of pro-union voters agreeing.

In contrast, 93 per cent of No voters are against a referendum, with 17 per cent of pro-independence voters agreeing.

Voters were also asked whether they supported a referendum going ahead without a Section 30 order.

This is what would likely happen if the Supreme Court signed off Ms Sturgeon’s plans for a vote as legal.

More Scots would oppose than support such a move, with 41 per cent opposing, 37 per cent supporting and 15 per cent having no opinion on such a strategy.

This is again split on constitutional lines, with 74 per cent of Yes voters backing the move, while 80 per cent of No voters oppose the approach.

Some 67 per cent of Scots stated they would vote in a referendum held without a Section 30 order.

More than half (57 per cent) of No voters would vote in such a poll, with 90 per cent of Yes voters stating they would take part.

A total of 17 per cent of voters would not vote, including a quarter of No voters and 4 per cent of Yes voters.

Around 15 per cent state they do not know whether they would take part, including 18 per cent of No voters versus 6 per cent of Yes voters.

Chris Hopkins, associate director at Savanta ComRes, said the poll ‘only serves to underline the division within Scotland’.

He said: “Should Scotland be an independent country? The results are practically neck and neck.

"Support for a second independence referendum without a Section 30 is driven by those in the Yes camp; opposition comes almost wholly from the No camp.

"Four in five Yes voters say the case for independence is stronger now than in 2014, a majority of No voters say it’s weaker now.

"The battle lines that were drawn in 2014 are all-too familiar, and Nicola Sturgeon’s defiance to hold a referendum at almost any cost just deepens this divide.

"But, if that’s the only path to independence and, given the progress the Yes camp made during the campaign in 2014, if she can get over the hurdle of being legally allowed to hold a second vote, only a fool would bet against her returning independence, regardless of the division it would sow.”