Celtic homegrown player quota could influence summer transfers

Saturday’s victory over Rangers all-but confirms another Premiership title, an 11th in 12 years, will take up residence at Parkhead, and there remains the prospect of a treble if Ange Postecoglou’s players can find a way past their Ibrox rivals at Hampden later this month.

These are days to savour, no doubt, for Celtic fans. It will not be forgotten that, this time two years ago, things were very different. Rangers had halted what, for so long, felt like an unstoppable march to 10-in-row, the club did not have a manager in place, and several key players were poised to leave come the summer.

Postecoglou changed all that. The manager has been near-flawless domestically, his impact on the club as a tactician and leader proving utterly invaluable. Off the pitch, his management of Celtic’s squad has been just as crucial as any change he has inspired on it.

The 57-year-old’s high success rate in the transfer market has been well noted. He has recruited efficiently and shrewdly, tapping into markets previously untouched by a club which, for all its success in the modern era, has been prone to leaving supporters bemused with their signing business on occasion.

There have been no such grumblings under Postecoglou. As the summer transfer window approaches, he will already have plans in place for the next stage of Celtic’s evolution. The key word the manager has used regarding his strategy on this front has been ‘aggressive’, so much so that he has cautioned it could even be a bit startling for fans, who have seen popular figures such as Giorgos Giakoumakis and Josip Juranovic be swiftly moved on when the club feel the time is right.

“That can be a little bit unsettling because it may mean we have a high turnover of players,” Postecoglou said. “We have got to be ready, willing and able to facilitate that (players leaving) and make sure that we replenish that with something that is going to take us further.”

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Postecoglou’s overarching ambition has been to make Celtic a competitive force in Europe again, and their summer recruitment will no doubt attempt to galvanise that. But it will also have to reflect UEFA’s requirements around homegrown talent.

The governing body’s rules dictate that clubs competing in their competitions must have a minimum of eight ‘locally-trained’ players in a named 25-man squad. There are two categories here: the first being club-trained players who were on Celtic’s books for three years between the ages of 15 and 21. The second is association-trained talent – players who were with another Scottish club for three years between 15 and 21. It is stipulated that the homegrown quota can have no more than four from the latter category.

At present, only eight players (the very minimum) in Celtic’s squad for this season meet the criteria. They are: Callum McGregor, Greg Taylor, Scott Bain, Stephen Welsh, David Turnbull, James Forrest, Anthony Ralston and James McCarthy.

Meeting this quota will have an impact on decisions made in the summer. For example, Mikey Johnston is set to return from a loan spell in Portugal with Vitoria Guimaraes, and remains under contract until 2026. There is the possibility that he could remain, in part, to satisfy UEFA’s rules, and his presence may be further required anyway if a speculation over a potential departure for Liel Abada comes to fruition at season’s end.

Adam Montgomery will return from a loan at St Johnstone at the end of May and he could be retained, albeit as third-choice left-back. Loaning him to a Premiership club suggests Celtic believe he is capable of making the step to top-flight, and he may yet have a chance at Parkhead.

Of the eight listed above, though, there are four for whom you could make a realistic case for potentially moving on in the summer. Turnbull, for example, has been reduced to a bit-part role, and has Reo Hatate, Aaron Mooy and Matt O’Riley all ahead of him in competing for Postecoglou’s two starting number eight positions. The arrival of Tomoki Iwata has further increased competition for places in area Celtic are already packed with quality.

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Turnbull will enter the final 12 months of his contract come the summer, and for the purposes of European competition Celtic would well offer him a year’s extension. At 23, though, the former Motherwell midfielder likely feels he needs to be playing regular football at this stage in his career, not making cameo appearances from the bench.

Welsh is another who will be considering his options. The departing Moritz Jenz was rapidly replaced by Yuki Kobayashi earlier in the season, keeping Welsh down at fourth choice centre-back. Even Kobayashi has hardly featured, though, and that does not bode particularly well for the academy graduate’s playing time prospects moving forward.

Forrest, meanwhile, is approaching the latter years of his career but is another finding minutes on the pitch hard to come by. McCarthy has been nowhere to be seen for much of the campaign, and that will almost certainly remain the case, given the wealth of options ahead of him. Nobody is expecting all of these guys to be banging on Postecoglou’s door demanding they be sold come the summer, but there will be some turnover, at least. Turnover that will, in all likelihood, require a focus on homegrown players.

If Celtic do encounter a situation where they need to add in this area, their options are twofold. They could, of course, look to the transfer market, and will already have potential targets in mind. In the Premiership, though, there are not many Turnbull’s elsewhere in the league at present – e.g. young Scottish players who could come straight into Celtic’s senior squad.

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Situations such as this one are where the B team should, in theory, start paying dividends. But aside from Rocco Vata and Bosun Lawal, are there any youngsters standing on the brink of the first-team at present? There are high hopes for the likes of Ewan Otoo and Ben Summers, but it may yet be too early for them to make what is a mammoth jump.

The lack of youth prospects making their way into the first-team has not been aided by the loss of promising talents to other clubs. Ben Doak, for example, looked destined for the step up, but there is little Celtic can do when the likes of Liverpool come calling, nor when Bayern Munich swooped in for Liam Morrison and Barry Hepburn.

It is a potentially troublesome situation, yet not one which will be causing too much concern at Parkhead, primarily because Postecoglou has proven himself highly effective in managing his squad. There will already be plans in place to solve any potential puzzles that may arise, and it will be intriguing to observe who fits into them, and where.