Why replacing Carl Starfelt at Celtic may be trickier than you think

Before and after Saturday’s 4-2 victory over Ross County, Brendan Rodgers elaborated on mounting speculation surrounding the centre-back, confirming that he was indeed on the brink of leaving the club. It was certainly a surprise; Starfelt had formed a highly effective partnership with Cameron Carter-Vickers and his spell in Glasgow had been the most successful of his career, winning five trophies in two seasons.

Rodgers revealed that there were several personal reasons behind Starfelt’s desire to move on. It has emerged that La Liga side Celta Vigo are the frontrunners for his signature, with the 28-year-old seemingly keen on the opportunity to play in one of Europe’s top leagues. The Celtic manager also hinted the club could not compete with the financial package on offer from Spain, and that Starfelt’s partner – ex-Celtic women’s forward Jacynta Galabadaarachchi – also having left Glasgow for Lisbon was a factor in the decision.

Confirmation of the defender’s move to Galicia is expected to arrive early this week, albeit it has already been unofficially by announced by his dentist, of all people, on Instagram. Sources don’t come much more reliable than that, to be honest, so we can surely take it as read that Starfelt’s time in Scotland has come to an end.

Despite being first-choice centre-back alongside Carter-Vickers for two years, there hasn’t been a great deal of fan angst stirred up by the possibility of losing him, certainly not compared to Jota’s sudden and unexpected move to Saudi Arabia. Maybe it’s because centre-backs don’t always capture supporters’ imaginations in the same way as attacking players, maybe it’s confidence that new signing Maik Nawrocki is up to the task, or perhaps there’s an element of Starfelt never having completely won over the Celtic fanbase.

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First impressions are hard to shake in this part of the football world, and his start to life at Celtic was stuttering. It certainly did not help that he was thrown into a largely makeshift side with a manager still steadfastly insistent on playing the most expansive football possible. The early Postecoglou days were always going to leave his backline exposed while players got to grips with the system that eventually yielded silverware-laden results.

Admittedly, Starfelt was, and still is, prone to the odd panic-inducing moment in possession and it’s possibly the most prominent reason why not all Celtic fans grew to fully trust him. But there is a real possibility he becomes one of those players’ whose true value only becomes apparent after they have moved on.

It was readily apparent early on in Starfelt’s Celtic career that Franz Beckenbauer he was not, but he has proven so valuable for team as a pure defender. Statistics, of course, are not the be all and end all when evaluating a player’s contribution, but Starfelt’s defensive numbers consistently compare well when stacked up against Carter-Vickers, are there are even some areas where the Swede outperformed his more highly-regarded team-mate.

According to StatsBomb data, Starfelt was Celtic’s best performing centre-back in terms interceptions, tackles and successfully defended dribbles. There were times, yes, when he could look less comfortable than Carter-Vickers in possession, but again numbers show he did a more than capable job on the ball. His overall completed pass percentage was 93 per cent, the same as Carter-Vickers, albeit this metric is often inflated for centre-backs, not least at Celtic were teams frequently drop off instead of pressing high.

But there is evidence Starfelt was underrated in helping Celtic progress into attacking areas – he had a higher rate in completing what StatsBomb defines as a ‘deep progression’ – e.g helping the team into the final third via passing or carrying the ball.

Some may never have been convinced by Starfelt, but there is a compelling case that Celtic are losing a consistently dependable performer. Rodgers indicated at the weekend that if the transfer were to go through, he would be looking to recruit another centre-back. That the club are willing to let Starfelt depart suggests a confidence in Nawrocki and in the recruitment process in bringing in an additional defender.

There has been recognition that Starfelt has personal reasons for wishing to move on, but it’s not a deal Celtic would sanction if it did not make financial sense, nor if they were unsure they could land an adequate replacement. Rodgers insisted Starfelt has been ‘respectful’ throughout the process, which likely means the club have been aware of his intentions for far longer than the general public, and it would not be a surprise if significant in-roads have already been made on a new signing.

The question there, though, is whether Rodgers sees Nawrocki as being new first-choice, or if his intention is to buy one. The new signing from Legia Warsaw enjoyed a largely assured competitive debut against County on Saturday.

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He looks aggressive, robust and very comfortable in building Celtic attacks from deep. In other words, Rodgers may already be satisfied that he has his Starfelt replacement in the building already, and any other additions would be as competition or back-up.

That he so readily confirmed he would look again to the transfer market is telling regarding a number of other players’ futures. Stephen Welsh and Liam Scales both played a part in pre-season, but the latter failed to even make the bench on Saturday, and Rodgers’ declaration of intent afterwards will not have made them feel any better about their future prospects. Yuki Kobayashi, too, seems to have an uphill battle on his hands to get his Celtic career off the ground any time soon.

Starfelt’s may have taken a little while to get going, but he will bring it to an end having been, as Rodgers himself put it, an ‘excellent’ servant to the club. He may not always have been the most fashionable Celtic player, but whoever replaces him will have a considerable challenge on their hands.